Relying solely on Trump’s public statements often makes it difficult to discern his true intentions. Only by piecing together the scattered fragments of actions can one gradually see the full picture. When the Trump administration officially launched the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz — with mine-clearing operations progressing steadily, precision strikes hitting military targets on Kharg Island, the introduction of an escort insurance mechanism, and discussions of a “windfall profits tax” emerging — these pieces of information came together, and I finally realized: the thinking of the Trump administration team is far more sophisticated, pragmatic, and far-sighted than the outside world imagines. The methods they have employed truly exceed the expectations of ordinary observers and markets.
The Trump Team’s Real Calculus: Short-Term Maximum Pressure, Long-Term Energy Dominance
From the outset, the Trump team designed a clear “two-step” strategy:
Step One (Short-Term): Weaken Iran’s war-fighting capability through military action — a goal that has largely been achieved. Gain the moral high ground in negotiations; if talks break down, swiftly shift to a naval blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, implement mine-clearing, and ultimately achieve effective monitoring of key shipping lanes, exerting precise maximum pressure on Iran. The focus of the blockade is on Iranian ports and vessels transporting oil for Iran, rather than completely severing global oil transportation routes. This approach costs far less than large-scale bombing of domestic infrastructure, is more controllable, and can rapidly cut off Iran’s primary source of fiscal revenue. Iranian officials have publicly acknowledged that the national economy cannot sustain more than a month of such intense pressure.
Step Two (Long-Term): When conditions are ripe, seek control over Kharg Island — the core hub carrying over 90% of Iran’s crude oil exports. Currently, U.S. forces have conducted precision strikes only on military targets on the island, deliberately sparing the oil facilities to retain full flexibility for subsequent blockade or temporary takeover. This strategy is far smarter than directly destroying infrastructure: it can long-term constrain Iran’s fiscal lifeline, avoid massive environmental disasters and high reconstruction costs, and leave room for adjustment in future negotiations.
Thanks to the buffering capacity of Saudi Arabia and the UAE via Red Sea pipelines, the surge in U.S. domestic oil exports, and the production potential of countries such as Venezuela, Russia, and Canada, the global net oil supply gap remains controllable within a reasonable range. Although oil prices are elevated, they have not spiraled out of control — this is precisely the buffer space the Trump team reserved in advance.
Domestic Supporting Measures: Proactively Mitigating Risks and Stabilizing Market Expectations
The Trump team is well aware of the domestic pressures that high oil prices may trigger, and has therefore simultaneously deployed key supporting measures:
First, consideration is being given to imposing a “windfall profits tax” on major oil companies, returning a portion of excess profits to middle- and low-income groups in the form of quarterly rebates. This not only alleviates inflationary pressure but also sends a clear signal of “balanced interests and controllable risks” to the capital markets, reducing concerns about the imbalance between corporate windfalls and public burdens. The fact that this policy has not yet been formally adopted indicates that the Trump team still views the current conflict as a short-term controllable event rather than a protracted war quagmire.
Second, the introduction of an escort insurance mechanism to provide political risk insurance for cargo ships passing through the Gulf. Ship owners need only pay a reasonable fee to obtain U.S. military escort, creating a “pay-for-safety corridor” model. This both stabilizes global shipping expectations and allows the United States to generate additional revenue from the escort operations.
In addition, the team may supplement these with other undisclosed buffer measures. These deployments demonstrate that, well before the action began, they had thoroughly assessed market reactions and prepared systematically.
The Trump Team’s Greatest Concern: Avoiding Power Vacuums and Post-War Disorder
What the Trump team least wants to see is a severe power vacuum emerging after the collapse of the Iranian regime, leading to prolonged chaos. They have drawn deep lessons from Iraq and Libya: simply removing the leadership often allows more radical forces to take over, or triggers civil war and proxy conflicts.
Therefore, their core objective is not to create collapse, but to promote a controlled regime transition. The team believes that Iran’s various opposition factions currently lack the ability to stabilize the situation on their own; the most reliable path is through some form of coalition government that coalesces the broadest common denominator through extensive consultation or elections.
In this process, Reza Pahlavi can serve as a symbolic figure during the transitional period, but he is not the only option. The team prefers to allow Iran’s internal forces to gradually fracture and reorganize under external pressure, with the outside world providing only conditions and oversight rather than directly designating the future government. Transition models can draw from the Japanese or Venezuelan cases, with Trump seemingly leaning toward the latter. However, for Iranian decision-makers with a medieval mindset, genuine change may only occur after complete defeat. Thus, a fractured Iran requires a transitional coalition government.
In any case, “the war has left the country in ruins; any improvement means progress” — just as in today’s Venezuela. There are reports that factories in Yiwu, China, have begun producing the old Iranian flag, which may also be a subtle signal.
Final Thoughts: Markets Need Not Panic Excessively
We have no internal intelligence and are merely conducting logical deduction based on publicly available fragments — the blockade announcement, restrained strikes on Kharg Island, the escort insurance mechanism, discussions of the windfall tax, and Trump’s repeated hints about power vacuums — in an attempt to reconstruct the overall thinking of the Trump elite team.
From this perspective, the Trump team’s plan is more sophisticated than currently understood by the outside world, with ample flexibility and exit mechanisms. The blockade of the Strait of Hormuz is not an impulsive move but a carefully designed strategic lever; long-term control is not aimed at permanent occupation but at creating conditions for a controlled transition. If it ultimately leads to the emergence of a relatively pragmatic government, the U.S. strategic goal of long-term dominance in the global energy landscape will become easier to achieve. Of course, the word “if” itself implies uncertainty and risk, but this is undoubtedly a well-considered strategic gamble.
This morning, while reviewing various discussions on my phone, I further deepened my thinking about this overall layout: risks exist, but the Trump team’s pragmatic buffers and controlled transition approach indeed make the entire chessboard appear more stable. Market unease at present mainly stems from not yet fully seeing the complete picture of this game. Once one understands the full logic of the Trump team — “short-term maximum pressure, long-term energy dominance, and prudent promotion of transition” — it becomes clear that while risks remain, the overall direction is advancing toward strengthening U.S. energy advantage and controlled transition. It is far less uncontrollable than it appears on the surface and highly consistent with the strategic goal of “Making America Great Again.”
A true chess game is often quietly laid out by a few elites long before most people understand it.
（This article is an observer’s analysis based on publicly available information and logical deduction. It does not constitute any investment advice or policy prediction. The situation continues to evolve rapidly; it is recommended to closely follow official developments.）
