——Finding Certainty in Uncertainty
Compiled in collaboration with Grok
In 2026, the risk of a global financial crisis erupting is real. We should adopt a pragmatic, defensive, and long-term-oriented strategy to find certainty amid severe volatility.
1. Current Macro Background: The Tail End of the Fifth Kondratiev Wave and the Beginning of the Sixth Wave
Risk Signals: The U.S. national debt has exceeded 39 trillion dollars, with annual interest payments approaching or surpassing 1 trillion dollars. Global confidence in the dollar has declined. Although U.S. stocks rose for three consecutive years previously, March 2026 saw the rare simultaneous decline in stocks, bonds, and gold — a classic signal of liquidity exhaustion. The Trump administration has pursued proactive adjustments and multi-front strategies, which may bring significant achievements but have also triggered opposition and confrontation, including geopolitical economic frictions, partial disintegration of globalization, the collapse of the old order, and the reconstruction of a new one. The叠加 of inflationary pressures and trade uncertainties may amplify systemic risks.
We hope Trump succeeds — he is someone capable of creating miracles. However, traditional financial experts remain cautious, with models from UBS and others indicating an over 80% probability that we are currently in a bubble.
Kondratiev Wave Perspective: We are now at the tail end of the fifth Kondratiev wave, with the sixth wave — marked by AI — just beginning. All logic is changing. We do not know when we might be laid off, nor whether we will find suitable work in the future. Musk’s advancements in robotaxis and robotics are reducing numerous temporary job opportunities — we may soon even lose chances to work as nannies or in restaurants. This anxiety first emerged in Silicon Valley and has spread globally within just over half a year. At its core, the anxiety stems from uncertainty: we do not know what the future will look like.
Possible Forms of Crisis: It may not be a simple 2008-style bank run, but more likely manifested as credit tightening, market crashes, currency devaluation, or liquidity crises, accompanied by rising commodity prices and shrinking consumption due to periodic oil price surges. From the Nasdaq weekly chart, the downward trend is evident, with larger corrections in the Dow Jones and S&P 500. The market is on edge like a frightened bird.
Core Psychological Shift: Immediately switch your expectations from “pursuing excess returns” to “capital preservation.”
2. Immediate Actions: Build a Defensive Buffer
Cash Is King — But Put It in the Right Place
Prepare at least 12 months of living expenses (instead of the conventional 3-6 months). Place the funds in money market funds or short-term government bonds, and avoid keeping them in regular bank savings accounts (where interest easily lags behind inflation). In a crisis, only sufficient cash can prevent you from being forced to sell assets at the bottom.
Cut All Non-Essential Spending
Suspend all non-essential expenses such as subscriptions, food delivery, and travel. Renegotiate insurance and broadband fees. This is not mere frugality — it is extending your survival runway.
Pay Off High-Interest Debt First, Then Consider Investments
Prioritize clearing credit cards and consumer loans with annualized interest rates above 10%. If your mortgage has a low fixed rate, you can defer early repayment — preserving cash liquidity is more important.
China Observation: From 2024 to 2025, China’s total bank deposits (including those from households, enterprises, government, and non-banking financial institutions) surged sharply. The balance of domestic and foreign currency deposits has exceeded 336 trillion yuan, with RMB deposits increasing by 26.41 trillion yuan in 2025 alone. This phenomenon of society-wide “everyone stopping spending” and funds heavily accumulating in the banking system appears rational from an individual risk-avoidance perspective, but it is a dangerous signal at the macro level — weakening consumption and investment willingness may further suppress demand and exacerbate economic downturn pressures.
3. Investment Portfolio Adjustment: Shift Toward Certainty Assets
Finding certainty amid uncertainty is the core principle at present. Do not blindly follow conventional “standard” advice. Instead, screen all assets using the principle of certainty — regardless of whether they are classified as defensive sectors.
Focus on Areas of Certain Growth: AI, as the foundational technology of the sixth Kondratiev wave, has relatively certain long-term growth potential (similar to the periodic oil price increases under issues like the Strait of Hormuz). You may allocate moderately to high-quality assets in AI-related fields, but must screen strictly to avoid overall bubble risks.
Strictly Avoid Leverage: Only when you have no high-interest debt and sufficient living expenses can you afford to be locked in. Discipline is the key to achieving certainty.
Hard Money / Scarce Assets as a Hedge: The certainty of a financial crisis lies in its exposure of the inherent fragility of the credit-based fiat monetary system (persistent inflation, debt expansion, etc.). Therefore, allocating to hard assets independent of the traditional fiat system is a valid hedging method — this point is certain.
- Gold: A traditional safe-haven asset that performs well during currency devaluation, inflation, or confidence crises. Consider physical gold, gold ETFs, or related mining stocks.
- Bitcoin: As “digital gold,” its fixed supply cap of 21 million coins can theoretically resist fiat over-issuance. However, it remains highly volatile in the short term and currently shows positive correlation with the stock market. Referring to the U.S. Strategic Bitcoin Reserve Executive Order signed in 2025 under the Trump administration and policy developments in the crypto space, Bitcoin may see increased strategic use in the future to address America’s own problems. Of course, this still carries some speculative elements, so allocation should be small (do not overweight) and viewed with a long-term perspective.
Overall Discipline: No leverage, sufficient cash reserves, and screening assets by the principle of certainty — these are the bottom lines in a crisis.
4. Psychological and Systemic Preparation
Do Not Panic: Crises are often amplified by media and emotional decision-making. Stick to your plan and conduct regular reviews instead of checking the market every day.
Understand the Macro Background: Continuously monitor Federal Reserve policies, debt ceiling debates, and geopolitical risks. Measures by the Trump administration such as pushing for rate cuts and establishing a Bitcoin reserve may accelerate the transition from credit money to a “Bitcoin Dollar Standard” or hard-asset-backed currency during a crisis, but short-term volatility will increase significantly.
Community and Non-Financial Preparation: Stockpile basic supplies (food, water, medicine) and maintain interpersonal networks. In a crisis, mutual assistance and local resilience are often more important than pure financial assets.
5. Practical Considerations and Long-Term Perspective
There is no one-size-fits-all solution. Strategies must be adjusted according to personal age, risk tolerance, debt situation, and national policy differences (for example, the situations in dollar-hegemony countries and emerging markets are vastly different).
Historically, recovery has always followed similar crises — the key is to survive and remain rational. Finding certainty in uncertainty is not only a short-term survival strategy but also the foundation for long-term adaptation to the new cycle (driven by technologies such as AI in the sixth Kondratiev wave).
The surge in China’s total social deposits reminds us that when “everyone stops spending” becomes a widespread choice, macro risks are quietly accumulating. While focusing on capital preservation at the individual level, we should also pay attention to broader economic signals.
If the crisis does not erupt, that is best. If it does, preparing a certainty-based layout in advance will allow us to navigate the danger safely and may even present new opportunities during reconstruction. You are welcome to discuss further based on your specific situation (such as your country, asset structure, or views on AI/Bitcoin).
