Bitcoin’s Second Half: Achieving the Bitcoin Standard -

——Strategic Leap in the Midst of Correction

Zhu Weisha February 25, 2026

Fiat Has Passed Middle Age

As Bitcoin corrects in price, ancient addresses from the Satoshi era are beginning to sell off, prompting the market to search for reasons—some argue that with American involvement, Bitcoin has deviated from its original intent of replacing fiat currency. Such views may have held water in Bitcoin’s first half; but in the second half, without the cooperation of the U.S. government and financial leaders, and without a self-revolution among these political and financial elites, Bitcoin may not even surpass gold. The strategic intuition of American leaders may foreshadow the future direction, yet their exclusive emphasis on dollar stablecoins is insufficient to save the dollar or secure America’s continued leadership.

In 2026, we are in the midst of a correction cycle from last year’s high, compounded by macroeconomic uncertainties. Bitcoin has reached a critical inflection point. This article synthesizes the natural growth curve analysis, historical lessons of fiat collapse, and the risks in Bitcoin’s “second half” to explore its future strategic path. It focuses on analyzing the three core issues in Satoshi Nakamoto’s design, outlining the timeline for the dollar’s collapse, and proposing a two-step strategy toward the Bitcoin standard, ultimately pointing toward a decentralized, inflation-free global monetary system.

I. Satoshi Nakamoto’s Genius and the Three Minor Misunderstandings

Satoshi Nakamoto designed Bitcoin as a decentralized currency with a fixed supply of 21 million coins and a proof-of-work mechanism, aiming to eliminate intermediaries and inflation. This system has withstood more than a decade of volatility and adoption tests, demonstrating remarkable resilience. However, as pointed out in my article Solving the Three Significant Risks of Bitcoin Requires Satoshi Nakamoto to Come Out, Satoshi’s design contains three “minor misunderstandings”:

1. Misunderstanding of the Monetary Ruler

Bitcoin was designed as a store of value and medium of exchange but lacks a stable pricing mechanism. This gave rise to stablecoins, which serve as low-volatility units for daily transactions. In the future, Bitcoin must integrate decentralized stablecoins (such as DW20), first achieving a Bitcoin-dollar hybrid standard before transitioning to a pure Bitcoin standard.

2. Underestimation of Hardware Dynamics

Satoshi envisioned mining accessible to everyone via CPUs, but did not foresee the dominance of specialized ASIC miners, leading to computing power concentration among large players and monopoly risks. This requires community governance reforms to balance mining incentives and prevent excessive concentration.

3. Misjudgment of the Dollar Collapse Timeline

Satoshi designed 132 years of halving cycles (until 2140), assuming a gradual fiat decline. However, real-world analysis suggests the dollar’s collapse may accelerate. From the 1973 abandonment of the gold standard, the dollar’s lifespan is likely no more than about 100 years—this is confirmed by historical patterns. As analyzed in my article Predicting When the Dollar Will Collapse from the Natural Growth Curve, Bitcoin’s effective dominance may require only 48 years to complete, aligning with the high-speed phase of the natural growth curve.

These “minor misunderstandings” are not fatal flaws but highlight Bitcoin’s adaptability. In the second half (post-ETF approval), the focus shifts from issuance to application, governance, and global integration.

II. Natural Growth Curve: Compression from 132 Years to 48-Year Dominance

Bitcoin’s price and adoption follow the Pearl-Reed natural growth curve, an S-shaped pattern: potential phase (slow accumulation), high-speed growth phase (exponential rise), and maturity phase (stabilization aligned with the economy). Satoshi’s 132-year design corresponds to approximately 33 four-year halving cycles, while 48 years correspond to 12 cycles: the first 3 for potential, cycles 4–9 for high-speed growth, cycles 10–12 for maturity, followed by synchronization with roughly 2% annual global economic growth.

Real-world data has compressed this timeline: the first 48 years (cycles 1–12) complete mining and consensus building, while cycles 13–33 (84 years) establish Bitcoin as equivalent to M1 (base money). Key inflection points: cycle 4 marks entry into high-speed growth, and cycle 10 into maturity. Bitcoin’s market cap catches up to global M1 by cycle 12 (approximately $140 trillion), then synchronizes with M1 until 2140 (about $754 trillion), yielding an average coin price of approximately $35.9 million (see my article Bitcoin Natural Growth Curve).

This acceleration stems from institutional adoption (e.g., BlackRock ETFs) and Metcalfe’s Law (network value ∝ users²). Short-term fluctuations are unpredictable, but the long-term trend is upward, with the narrative shifting from “store of value” to “global standard.” We are currently in the fifth cycle, with a peak target of $200,000 reasonable (approximately 2 years remaining). During the correction, chips are shifting from weak hands to strong hands—long-term holders and institutions.

III. Historical Lessons: Dollar Collapse and the Inevitable Fall of Paper Money

Paper money issuance began in China’s Song Dynasty: Northern Song Jiaozi (1024–1105) lasted 81 years before collapsing due to over-issuance; Southern Song Hui Zi (1161–1724) and Ming Baochao (1375–1444) lasted less than a century; Yuan Zhongtong notes (1260–1368) endured the longest at 108 years. The root cause of collapse: government monopoly on issuance to cover fiscal deficits without checks and balances.

The U.S. dollar, as the “best” fiat currency, follows the same historical pattern, offering Bitcoin an opportunity to rise. Since the 1973 collapse of the Bretton Woods system, the dollar has depreciated 98% against gold. As calculated in my article The Annual Compound Inflation Rate of the U.S. Dollar Against Gold Has Exceeded 8.1% in the Past 50 Years, Which Is the Main Reason for the Polarization of the Rich and the Poor, the dollar’s compound annual inflation rate over the past 50 years exceeds 8.1%. Savings cannot preserve value; only returns above 8.1% annually can outpace inflation—achievable by few—leading to extreme wealth polarization: diligence barely sustains life, while speculation becomes mainstream.

History repeats: the dollar follows an S-curve. Accumulation phase 1973–2000 (27 years), high-speed inflation phase 2000–2054 (54 years), plus 27 years of stability, totaling 108 years, collapsing around 2081.

Bitcoin serves as the antidote: its fixed supply counters the temptation of printing. Similar to ancient crises shifting to gold and silver, Bitcoin’s 48-year dominance phase accelerates, positioning it as a “financial lifeboat.”

IV. The Second Half: Three Major Risks and the Necessity of Satoshi Nakamoto’s Return

Bitcoin’s second half was triggered by the 2024 ETF approvals, shifting from issuance to application. Yet three major risks stand out:

Mining Concentration Risk: Large capital distorts the hashrate curve; during low-profit periods, monopolies by big players may depreciate Bitcoin’s value.
Decline in Maintenance Personnel Risk: Bitcoin Core maintainers have dropped from 17 to 4 and may fall further to one person, risking a “programmer monopoly.”
Lack of Rights for Coin-Holding Users Risk: In the second half, users (holders) dominate but lack governance rights, unlike shareholders in traditional finance.
Resolution requires Satoshi Nakamoto’s emergence: as proposed in my article Solving the Three Significant Risks of Bitcoin Requires Satoshi Nakamoto to Come Out: no one else has the stature to unify the community. I recommend establishing a foundation with a 9-person decision-making committee (2 votes for programmers, 2 for hashrate parties, 4 for users, 1 for Satoshi as chairman), a small office, and partial transaction fees (Ethereum-style) for sustainability and user empowerment. Satoshi would serve as founding chairman to counter entropy. If willing, the Trump administration could invite Satoshi as an AI and crypto advisor to drive governance upgrades. This faces significant resistance, but if you have better proposals, please share for discussion.

V Bitcoin’s Two-Step Path to the Standard

1. Bitcoin-Dollar Hybrid Standard

The U.S. should first establish a strategic reserve (ideally official and private holdings of 40% BTC, matching the dollar’s trade share) to counter global central banks’ gold-buying alliances. The Trump administration’s “crypto czar” must move beyond first-half thinking and treat BTC as the high ground in currency warfare.

2. Pure Bitcoin Standard

Establish decentralized stablecoin rulers combined with Bitcoin as reserve currency for pricing, with growth synchronized to GDP (zero inflation). By 2054–2070, Bitcoin gradually replaces fiat, building a fairer social system.

The current cycle’s $200,000 peak target is achievable; long-term, it may reach millions to tens of millions per coin. The natural growth curve predicts approximately $35.9 million per coin. Of course, external threats like quantum computing require ongoing community attention and technical upgrades. Community mechanisms remain the most critical safeguard for a smooth second half.

Conclusion: A Fairer World Lies Ahead

Bitcoin’s future is not inevitable collapse but victory through wise navigation. From Satoshi’s 132-year blueprint compressed to 48 years of rise, it counters dollar demise and resolves historical fiat failures. The second half demands governance evolution—and perhaps Satoshi’s guidance—to mitigate risks and achieve a bubble-free, user-empowered system. Through national endorsement and stablecoin integration, Bitcoin can fulfill its original intent: gradually replacing fiat and evolving into the global monetary anchor. Long-term holders enduring the correction will find ahead not only wealth, but a moral, inflation-free economic vision.

It is precisely during Bitcoin’s downturns that reform is sparked: build consensus, advance reserves, perfect governance—let Bitcoin lead this silent yet profound financial revolution.

This article is a summary of the following pieces, responding to the current Bitcoin correction: