Zhu Weisha, October 4, 2025
I. Antiques Possess the Scarcity of Gold but Lack Its Safe-Haven Characteristics
1. Why “Gold in troubled times, antiques in prosperous times”
This saying accurately reflects the logic of asset selection in reality. Antiques share a similar scarcity with gold but have not become a mainstream safe-haven asset. The reason lies in the fact that the financial attributes of antiques have not been fully explored. Only in “prosperous times,” characterized by social stability and secure wealth, are antiques used for spiritual consumption and cultural display. To transform them into genuine safe-haven assets, their latent financial value must be activated. The first step is to correctly define valuation metrics.
Comparing the Financial Characteristics of Gold, Bitcoin, and Antiques
Gold possesses three core characteristics: scarcity, resistance to tampering, and ease of circulation. Below, we compare these with Bitcoin and antiques:
Scarcity: Gold is mined continuously each year, with the estimated production for 2025 representing about 1.7% of the existing total, slightly higher than Bitcoin’s annual production rate of 0.8%. Applying the financial concept of “inflation,” gold’s inflation rate is higher than Bitcoin’s. The scarcity of antiques is more complex: if not a unique piece, its value can be diminished by the discovery of similar artifacts; however, as a unique piece, it experiences zero “inflation.” Therefore, from a scarcity perspective, unique antiques possess the highest scarcity.
Since the US dollar decoupled from gold in 1973, the price of gold has risen from $35 per ounce to approximately $2,600 in 2024, representing an average annual growth rate of about 8.5% over 52 years. During the same period, the average annual price growth rate for high-quality antiques reached 10%. This gap stems precisely from the zero-inflation characteristic of high-quality antiques. Please refer to “The Financial Logic of Establishing an On-Chain Antiques Market” for further details.
Resistance to Tampering: Bitcoin possesses the characteristic of being completely tamper-proof. While gold counterfeiting exists, it is relatively easy to verify, making it an asset resistant to tampering. Antiques, however, face severe issues of imitation and forgery. The difficulty in authenticating them is a major obstacle to their financialization.
Ease of Circulation: Gold and Bitcoin have mature, highly liquid trading markets that support small-unit division and high-frequency trading. Antiques primarily rely on auction markets with limited participants. Even for rare pieces, the lack of a sufficiently broad market leads to inadequate price discovery and frequent undervaluation.
Summary of Comparison:
Antiques are not inferior to gold and Bitcoin in terms of scarcity. However, their financialization must solve two core problems: authenticity authentication and a mass-market trading mechanism.
II. Basic Indicators for Authenticating Antiques
Using Zhou Dynasty bronze vessels as an example, common authentication indicators are excerpted below, including the author’s comments.
1. Clear Archaeological Context: Relies on detailed excavation records (location, time, archaeological environment) to confirm the artifact’s origin and historical context.
Comment: This is an objective judgment, but its flaw lies in excluding artifacts not excavated from tombs.
2. Patina Analysis: Observes the structure of the corrosion layer under a microscope.
Comment: The method is correct but relies on the examiner’s experience, making it a subjective judgment.
3. Inscription Study: Analyzes the script style and content of inscriptions through bronze inscription studies, comparing them with known Zhou Dynasty bronzes.
Comment: Also relies on expert connoisseurship, a subjective judgment.
4. Craftsmanship Inspection: Checks for traces of the piece-mold casting process and casting flaws consistent with Zhou Dynasty technical characteristics.
Comment: Also an experiential, subjective judgment.
5. Corroboration with Literature and Archaeology: Compares the artifact’s features (such as shape, inscription) with historical records or known artifacts.
Comment: This is an objective judgment but is limited by the survival of historical documents.
6. Third-party Verification: Relies on independent authentication by authoritative institutions or experts.
Comment: Essentially still a subjective judgment.
Conclusion:
Among the above six indicators, only two can be considered objective judgments, and both have defects. Therefore, antique authentication can largely be classified as an “experiential science.” It is like Traditional Chinese Medicine: useful and effective, but difficult to form a broad consensus, thus confining it to a niche market. Based on such standards, antiques can hardly possess the financial characteristics of gold and Bitcoin.
III. Establishing Objective Standards Using Scientific Instruments
1. Two Principles for Establishing Standards
Mr. Xiao Shengkuan pointed out: “Without scientific instrument testing, even the eyes of the top experts can be wrong. Traditional Chinese Medicine emphasizes observation, listening, questioning, and pulse-taking, but it also requires the assistance of Western medical instruments like CT scans and color ultrasound.”
The correct path for the authentication of cultural artifacts and artworks should be:
1) Use scientific instruments to detect authenticity,
2) Use expert connoisseurship to research provenance and value.
A typical case is the painting “Riverbank” collected by the Metropolitan Museum of Art in the US. The authenticity of this painting was debated among top experts for years, until an American researcher confirmed it as a genuine work by Dong Yuan of the Southern Tang Dynasty during the Five Dynasties period, using X-ray detection technology.
2. Explanation of the Two Principles
● The objective standard provided by instrument testing bestows the “basic value” of an antique.
● Basic value is based on a universal consensus: items of the same type from the same era possess a foundational value inherent to their age.
● Expert connoisseurship then adds an “incremental value” on top of this foundation.
3. Breakthroughs Needed in Current General Detection Instruments
Table 1 summarizes the categories of instruments currently recognized in antique detection.
Commonly Used Scientific Instruments for Antique Detection
| DetectionPurpose | Recommended Instrument | Characteristics |
| Rapid Non-destructive Composition Analysis | X-ray Fluorescence Spectrometer (XRF) | Portable, fast, non-destructive，preferred for preliminary screening |
| High-Precision Composition/Provenance | Laser Ablation Inductively Coupled Plasma Mass Spectrometry (LA-ICP-MS) | Extremely high precision, minimally invasive; used for provenance studies |
| Internal Structure Observation | X-ray Radiography/CT Scanning | Non-destructive, sees through interior; checks for restoration and craftsmanship |
| Microscopic Morphology Observation | Various Microscopes (Stereoscopic, Electron) | Observes craft marks, aging characteristic |
| Ceramics Dating | Thermoluminescence (TL) | Directly determines firing date; destructive but authoritative |
| Organic Material Dating | Radiocarbon Dating (¹⁴C) | Directly determines age; authoritative |
| Rapid Screening for Restoration | Ultraviolet Lamp (UV) | Simple, inexpensive, effective |
As can be seen from Table 1, thermoluminescence and radiocarbon dating, while authoritative, have significant limitations: Thermoluminescence is destructive; Radiocarbon dating is only applicable to organic artifacts and is ineffective for recent artifacts. Furthermore, these classical physics dating methods rely on a series of idealized physical condition assumptions. In practice, due to their long history and complex environmental changes, artifact samples often do not conform to these ideal conditions, leading to potentially significant errors in the final dating accuracy.
Most other instruments can only serve as auxiliary judgment tools. Not only is their operation difficult, but the interpretation of results is highly dependent on expert experience.
Due to the overall insufficient reliability of existing technology, few institutions are willing to invest in building large, authoritative databases and assume ultimate authentication responsibility. The liability for compensation in case of error is also difficult to bear. This is the fundamental reason why famous auction houses generally implement policies where “lots are not guaranteed authentic, and no compensation is provided.”
Conclusion:
1) Relying on current technological conditions makes it difficult to support a standardized, scalable antique authentication industry.
2) The core of artifact authentication lies in “dating.” Solving the dating problem solves most of the authenticity problem. Therefore, the industry urgently needs a universal dating device that is non-destructive, fast, easy to operate, and low-cost.
3) Solving the above problems would enable a large number of “dead” assets to become liquid again, and their prices would return to reasonable ranges from undervalued levels.
4. QRS Quantum Resonance Spectrometer is the Optimal Dating Tool
The QRS Quantum Resonance Spectrometer shows potential for fast, non-destructive, and accurate dating of cultural artifacts. Its principle originates from quantum medicine in the 1920s, founded by Dr. William Nelson in the United States. Quantum medicine posits that the essence of human disease stems from changes in the electron spin orbits outside the atomic nucleus, which subsequently trigger a series of changes in atoms, biological molecules, cells, tissues, and organs. Detection instruments developed based on this principle are widely used clinically in developed countries.
In 1997, the Chinese medical field introduced such instruments from Japan. This instrument can detect about 1600 diseases, covering 2019 indicators, including a function for determining a person’s physiological age. So, can it be used to detect the “age” of antiques? Practice shows that it is feasible. Currently, QRS devices used for antique testing in China are mostly imitations of Japanese instruments, with varying quality. According to Mr. Huang Weigang’s test data from over 4000 cases, the overall conformity rate exceeds 95%, indicating good reliability.
The prominent advantages of quantum artifact detection are:
1. It does not need to rely on often unreliable large databases.
2. It only requires obtaining all the specific, determinative information data from the detected object (as an isolated system) to complete the dating diagnosis.
3. More significantly, its efficiency, from information acquisition to analysis and judgment, far exceeds that of various current scientific authentication instruments in the world.
Practice is the criterion of truth. The QRS Quantum Resonance Spectrometer has gained recognition from many private collectors. Mr. Xiao Shengkuan is planning to establish an antique insurance company that offers “authenticity guarantee and compensation” based on QRS test results. He believes that only by establishing such a credit system can the industry grow stronger and achieve revitalization.
In 2015, Mr. Lei Congyun, former Director of the China Cultural Relics Exchange Center and Executive Director of the Chinese Collectors Association, pointed out after inspecting the instrument’s testing: Quantum dating technology has broad-spectrum applicability, and its test results can be precise to the specific year, fundamentally solving the problems of dating and authenticity confirmation for cultural artifacts and artworks. Compared to the administrative mechanism once advocated of “fifteen-person visual authentication, one-vote veto,” this is undoubtedly a profound cognitive and technological revolution that should be vigorously promoted and popularized in all fields requiring dating.
The articles “[The Ins and Outs and Future of Quantum Detection Instruments](https://www.meipian.cn/4xilcmo9)” and “The Principle of QRS Quantum Resonance Spectrometer Dating and its Practice in Dating and Authenticating Cultural Artifacts and Artworks” detail issues related to the instrument.
5. Reasons for the Limited Development of QRS Quantum Resonance Spectrometers
The quality of small-workshop imitated instruments is unstable.
2) Operation requires professional training; lack of standardized operation makes it difficult to obtain accurate results.
3) Perhaps some interest groups, fearing exposure of counterfeits, suppress it by manipulating public opinion.
Conclusion:
If the industry is to develop significantly, there must be an instrument that anyone can operate and that yields consistent results.
The development of QRS technology to date shows a positive trend, indicating its direction is correct. The current shortcomings urgently require formal technical teams to collaborate with antique detection experts to develop domestically produced QRS equipment with higher levels of automation, greater ease of use, and better alignment with the professional needs of antique detection, aiming to comprehensively resolve the issue of discourse power in testing ancient Chinese artworks as soon as possible.
From the current perspective, solving the problem of consistent antique dating is possible. Next, the issue of the “mass market trading mechanism” needs to be addressed. To adapt to the new market, traditional valuation metrics must be reconstructed.
IV. Redefining the Valuation Metrics for Antiques
1. Three Traditional Valuation Metrics for Antiques
1) Scarcity
Scarcity refers to the characteristics of limited surviving quantity, finite total supply, and long-term preservability. The certainty of quantity is its key. The highest level of scarcity is a “unique piece.” Conversely, items like common copper coins from ancient currency have uncertain potential reserves; a discovery of a hoard can instantly disrupt the supply-demand balance, leading to value reassessment and thus lower value. Bitcoin, with its fixed total supply, possesses a valuation logic similar to a “unique piece.” Gold’s total quantity is not precisely known, but its annual production is relatively stable and predictable, so it cannot command the valuation premium of a “unique piece.” Copper coins require a price discount due to their uncertainty. Long-term market data also confirms this: the price increase of high-quality antiques is higher than that of gold, which in turn is higher than that of common copper coins.
2) Cultural Heritage
Cultural heritage encompasses historical, artistic, and scientific value. This type of value often manifests as “emotional value,” where valuations soar when trends emerge and fall back when trends recede. In niche trading, this emotion has a limited impact on price. However, in a mass trading market similar to equities, it becomes an important factor affecting short-term prices. Short-term price fluctuations form new price floors. Since the intrinsic value of antiques is relatively stable (unlike variable corporate value), each price rise driven by emotion, when it falls back, tends to settle at a floor higher than the previous one, thus forming a benign price escalation ladder. This bears similarity to Bitcoin’s price increase pattern. Therefore, continuously excavating the cultural connotations of antiques is crucial, as every manifestation of cultural value can potentially drive its price increase. Benjamin Graham’s famous saying, “In the short run, the market is a voting machine, but in the long run, it is a weighing machine,” applies here as well. Cultural heritage corresponds to the “voting machine” (emotional value), while objective valuation corresponds to the “weighing machine.”
Emotional value, through constant fluctuations, ultimately manifests as objective valuation.
Cultural heritage is specifically divided into three aspects:
Historical Culture: Reflects the social and cultural characteristics of a specific era (e.g., Shang Zhou bronzes, Tang Dynasty tri-color glazed pottery).
Artistic Culture: Embodies the unique aesthetic of an era (e.g., Song Dynasty Ru ware porcelain, Ming and Qing paintings and calligraphy).
Scientific Culture: Reflects unique technological, material, and craftsmanship achievements.
3) Intangible Assets
Even among antiques of similar age and category (e.g., both bronzes or paintings), intangible assets such as their fame, previous auction records, etc., significantly affect their price. In traditional niche trading, this part of the value is often overlooked. However, when antiques are offered as financial products to the public (e.g., through token issuance), the upfront market education costs ultimately need to be reflected in the asset’s value. At that point, intangible assets (brand effect) will become a crucial valuation metric.
2. Three New Valuation Metrics Required for Entering the Mass Trading Market
4) Natural Appreciation of High-Quality Antiques
This is a key metric for antiques entering the mass market. Gold is an important reference: from 1973 to 2024, gold’s average annual increase against the US dollar was about 8.5%, while the average annual US dollar inflation rate during the same period was about 3.9%. This indicates that gold not only hedges against US dollar inflation but also carries a risk premium against the dollar. This is particularly evident in the gold rallies of 2021 and 2025. The reason is the US national debt exceeding $36 trillion, causing concerns among central banks about dollar risk and increasing gold allocations. This type of rise contains emotional value.
Once the authenticity issue of antiques is resolved, high-quality antiques, due to their zero “inflation,” as anchor assets, their value growth can be approximated as “Gold appreciation + Gold inflation rate.” In the initial stage of price discovery, their increase might be even more significant.
More importantly, antiques possess the unique advantage of being able to issue interest-bearing tokens, a characteristic neither gold nor Bitcoin can achieve. Bitcoin’s rules dictate that it cannot issue interest-bearing tokens. Gold is not owned by a single entity; issuance by specific gold holders would create price differentials.
When the value of an antique reaches a stable range, referencing gold’s long-term growth rate, a portion of its growth value can be distributed as “interest” through the issuance of tokens. As long as the yield exceeds the risk-free rate (like US Treasury bonds) by a certain margin (e.g., over 1%), it would be highly welcomed. This action requires no physical transfer, does not touch legal restrictions, while the antique can be displayed in a museum, generating ticket revenue and enhancing asset transparency.
While the reasoning above is simple, it constitutes financial innovation. It provides imagination and solutions for establishing a new financial landscape. The emergence of the Bitcoin system offered humanity a new form of credit. Leveraging the credit model of the Bitcoin system, high-quality antiques combine the advantages of gold and Bitcoin, producing a financial characteristic that neither possesses——the ability to generate interest. Antiques share the characteristic of hedging against fiat currency risk with gold and Bitcoin, while adding an financial characteristics.
Bitcoin formed a new financial category. Understanding gold’s pricing logic reveals that the investment risk of high-quality antiques is lower than US Treasury bonds. Through the characteristic of generating interest, antiques will also form a new financial category——risk-free investment.
5) Liquidity Value
Gold and cryptocurrencies typically do not focus on valuation; most tokens lack valuation methods. Actually, valuation methods exist. Taking Bitcoin as an example, its price is based on consensus; the more people who share the consensus, the greater its value. While the principle is understood, how should it be quantified for valuation? Metcalfe’s law is applied here.
If people are considered nodes, Metcalfe’s law applies. This law states that the value of a network (like telephones, the internet, social media) is proportional to the square of the number of its users. Assuming the distribution ratio of wealthy and non-wealthy people is the same within a population, this law can also apply to cryptocurrencies.
There is empirical data in cryptocurrency. A token with a good business model, upon listing for circulation, typically experiences a liquidity premium of several times at least. The reason is the reflection of the user value accumulated before the project’s launch.
For the antique market to develop significantly, it must transition from a niche market to a mass market. Liquidity value will become a very important metric. Online transactions are transparent. Observing the increase in holding addresses implies an increase in the antique’s value.
Liquidity value also includes the examination of trading volume.
6) Valuation of Future Growth Potential
This is a method commonly used in capital markets. Buying stocks means buying the future growth potential of a company. For antiques, their value uncertainty often lies in disputes over authenticity. Once disputes are eliminated, their value tends to stabilize, similar to gold. Therefore, the period of dispute is actually a window of undervaluation, offering opportunities for the discerning. Analysts play an important role in the stock market; the antique market similarly requires professional analytical reports. When valuing antiques, if considering their future cultural value excavation or the expansion of market consensus, they need to be priced as “growth stocks.” Part of the expected value can be reflected in the current valuation. For reference, one can look at the change in the median Price-to-Earnings (P/E) ratio used in Nasdaq, from 10x to 20x. This is the change in expectation brought about by growth.
V. Summary
Determining authenticity through scientific instruments is the prerequisite for establishing the basic value of antiques. The six metrics described in this article collectively constitute a more comprehensive valuation framework for antiques: the first three metrics inherit tradition, while the latter three metrics face the mass trading market. Auction or securitization operations conducted on this basis are more reasonable.
Mapping antiques as underlying assets onto the blockchain has the potential to create a brand new financial landscape. This article aims to spark discussion; as for what this new situation specifically entails, there is a set of theories that can describe it, left for interested individuals to explore in depth.
This article is the first to systematically propose that, beyond being collectibles, antiques can be endowed with financial attributes similar to gold and Bitcoin. Through token issuance, they can enter the mass trading market, thereby greatly enhancing their intrinsic value and market potential. Of course, the valuation systems may be further refined; the author’s knowledge is limited, and corrections from experts are earnestly requested.
