——Why I don’t need to be the banker
How prices are formed is most famously known as Mises’ Law of Regression, where today’s prices are determined by yesterday’s and can be traced back to the formation of the initial price. That is, the transaction determines the price.
Transactions are generated based on the theory of supply and demand. Excess prices fall, and scarcity rises until supply and demand are balanced.
The theory of supply and demand usually refers to consumer goods. Demand can explode instantly for securities, but it is difficult for consumer goods to explode instantly. We have Soros’s reflexive theory for securities, which is positive feedback. When it rises, it rises again; when it falls, it falls again, which is the theoretical basis of speculation.
There is a valuation in the stock market, and when speculation deviates far from the valuation, it will be shorted. What does valuation depend on? The current valuation of large U.S. technology stocks is around 35 times PE. In layperson’s terms, it takes 35 years to recover the investment. The current valuation far exceeds the 20 times the PE of large companies ten years ago and the ten times the PE twenty years ago. Values are revalued. Why are big tech companies revaluing? The Internet has formed a global market, the scope has expanded, and there are giants in every market segment.
Bitcoin is not a stock and does not apply to stock valuation but to commodity valuation. When U.S. ETFs come online, the demand market expands, and price increases are inevitable. This is the theory of supply and demand. The emergence of DW 20 will further expand the demand for Bitcoin, which is good for Bitcoin.
DW 20, like Bitcoin, is a commodity with a bottom price regulated by supply and demand. The number of users determines the bottom price. We need to expand the number of users and use many coins to stimulate user growth. If everyone sells the market will not be able to take it, so the flow of coins into the hands of believers is our basic logic. The more coins believers hold the more motivation there is to promote them. A system without a backbone will not work. Nearly 70% of Bitcoins are similar to hoarding coins. We will let the coins distributed in the early stages flow to the hands of believers at a low price. It is the key to forming the backbone. How to generate low prices lies in the application of our monetary policy.
The banker must control the vast majority of chips and then use good news for the stock market to increase shipments. In the hands of believers, the currency plays the role of a disguised lock-up so that the rise is a natural behavior of the market without the need to be a banker. This is the case with Bitcoin. A rising coin should have more than 60% “locked.” Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Dogecoin all have such locked positions. There are too few lock-up accounts for Dogecoin.
The blockchain is long-term investors, including Bitcoin long-term investors of less than 1%. The current concepts that dominate the currency circle are to dig, withdraw, and sell. Another replaces one collapse, so meme coins cannot last even a month without substantial bankers. But this banker is secret, and a high-level secret banker is like a casino, allowing people to make money in stages. The investors are all dead since blockchain projects for application purposes basically fail. At the same time, the gambling gang is still alive and growing, and the dead have no say. The thoughts of these gamblers have become the currency circle of mainstream views. The same pattern is repeated over and over again. How can the poor become rich without gambling? There are still many people who have achieved class crossing through “gambling,” and the opportunities are greater than those in traditional industries. Reflecting on the sentence “I bet my youth for tomorrow.”
Price and valuation are two issues. Price is generated by transactions, and valuation is generated based on the logic recognized by the market. Meme coins are difficult to value, and very few meme coins can be valued. Bitcoin and DW20 are both meme coins that can be valued. Suppose it cannot be valued or exceeds the valuation by a lot, and no new valuation logic appears. In that case, it must be a banker’s currency. From this, you can identify banker currency and sell quickly when the dealer pulls up prices and announces good news. Dogs and shibs are both banker currency.
A person will succeed if he invests a raised thousand times coin in a project in his lifetime. The most speculator will be regretted for the rest of their lives if they pick them up to sell them quickly. I don’t advocate that everyone stud, that is, spend a small amount of money to hold on and achieve a class leap. Cryptocurrency is an interdisciplinary industry, and it’s challenging to have comprehensive knowledge, let alone see it all.
I don’t participate in trading, let alone being a banker; it’s all done by low hands. But I didn’t say not to be a “Fed”.” They are the correct posture for marketization.
