How high can Bitcoin rise after the United States approves ETFs?

At the end of last year, the market began speculating on the expectation that the United States would approve a Bitcoin ETF (Exchange Traded Fund). Bitcoin rose from US$37,713 on December 1, 2023, to US$57,200 today on February 27, 2024, less than three months. It has risen by more than 50%, attracting global attention. Will Bitcoin still rise?

It is a definite answer. The key is how tall you grow. The ceiling of Bitcoin is unpredictable in the short term. Long-term prediction is a trend prediction, just one word: up. Predicting the rise of Bitcoin is based on experience. Experience only explains the past and is nothing more than finding a reason for yourself and the market to rise. If everyone agrees with this reason, it will increase.

Stocks have periodic tops. The valuation logic of Bitcoin and stocks is different. Stocks have a price comparison effect between stocks and have profit forecasts, so there will be a top in valuation. There is no profit forecast for Bitcoin, which is the valuation logic of commodities. The price is only determined by supply and demand, so there is no valuation ceiling. The effect is that a stock with a top is calculated as a percentage, while the increase of Bitcoin without a top is calculated as a multiple.

When the United States approved ETFs on January 10, 2024, the price of Bitcoin rose from $46,122 to $57,000 today on February 27. In just over 40 days, more than US$40 billion has flowed into ETFs, demonstrating strong market demand.

This demand is long-term because the approval of ETF has rectified the name of Bitcoin. Bitcoin is no longer air but an asset with financial attributes. Those who once said that Bitcoin is air were severely slapped in the face. They misled the market and caused believers to miss historical opportunities. With the anxious mentality of believers, some people will be anxious to get on the bus. Why are you nervous? Compared with gold and US stocks, Bitcoin is undervalued because Bitcoin has not yet reached its historic high of $69,000, while gold and US stocks have already exceeded their historical highs.

This demand is long-term because the leading effect of the United States will cause various capital markets worldwide to launch their own Bitcoin ETFs, further increasing the demand for Bitcoin. With the support of this long-term demand, there is a high probability event that it will exceed US$69,000 from the current perspective.

Once it breaks through 69,000 US dollars, it will fall and rise. Many speculative men will pour into the primary rising wave, and it will increase again after rising. This is Soros’s reflexive effect. The academic term is positive feedback. At this time, market sentiment controls the price, which has a perfect effect. Speculative effect. When demand is less than supply, a decline begins. Bulls are short, and bears are long. Doeslies? The apply the coin-store effect, the less supply there will be and the longer the bull market will be, so pay attention to Bitcoin’s coin-store indicator. The current coin hoard is at 70%.

By April this year, Bitcoin halving will reduce the supply by half, and if demand remains unchanged, the price should rise. How much it increases depends on demand. Observing the inflows of ETFs can roughly analyze how much Bitcoin should rise.

In addition to observing Bitcoin ETF inflows, changes in the market capitalization of cryptocurrency stablecoins are also indicators. This metric increased by over $4 billion from January 10 to February 27. ETF is the mainstream trend in rising prices.

Bitcoin ETF is an alternative investment used to hedge the inflation risk of legal currency, and its role is equivalent to gold. Gold is the largest store of value, with a market capitalization of US$13.7 trillion. Generally, the largest market share is 70%. It is possible for Bitcoin, the second largest, to rise to 4 trillion, which is 30% of the largest. Bitcoin’s increase has a 10-fold effect, a 10-fold increase from low to high in a four-year cycle. If the rules remain unchanged, the unit price of Bitcoin is US$160,000, and the total market value is almost US$3.3 trillion. Generally, the 10x rule will decrease as the size of Bitcoin increases, but the size of the legal currency is enormous. If one more percentage point enters, Bitcoin will explode. The 10x rule may continue to be in effect.

If Bitcoin continues to rise and surpass gold, a new narrative, a new demand factor, will be needed to realize the Bitcoin standard.

Bitcoin standard is the thinking of the dual currency systems. It means that the fiat currency standard and the Bitcoin standard compete and develop in parallel. For the principles of the Bitcoin standard, please refer to the “Implementation of DW20 Decentralized Standard Currency” on the chainless website (chainless.hk). Simply put, it is to set a ruler for Bitcoin, use Bitcoin to measure global economic development, and use DW20 to replace stablecoins. Bitcoin and DW20 together form an inflation-free Bitcoin-based system. The issuance principle of DW20 is the same as that of Bitcoin, which also requires the process from air to asset currency (stable currency). The difference is that DW20 adopts an airdrop method, and anyone can register to receive it without fees. DW20 steps into the rhythm of Bitcoin and helps Bitcoin. DW20 is just like Bitcoin in the early days. It is only easy to make profits in the early stage. The earlier you register, the more likely you will achieve class leap. Download link: https://eco.chainless.top/download? code=8613510870809VJ You will receive a big red envelope that will rise, possibly to tens of thousands of yuan.

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